UCSAvs
Yarud Mariupol'
COMPLETEDUkraine · Persha Liga · 10/11/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Yarud Mariupol' · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
UCSA 1-2 Yarud Mariupol'
Original prediction
Yarud Mariupol'
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.49 | 20.1% | 28.1% | 8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 25.7% | 27.6% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 54.2% | 44.3% | -9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Yarud Mariupol'
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Yarud Mariupol' has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80