Tukums IIvs
JFK Ventspils
COMPLETEDLatvia · 1. Liga · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tukums II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tukums II 1-0 JFK Ventspils
Original prediction
Tukums II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 43.0% | 42.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 24.3% | 21.5% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 32.8% | 36.0% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Tukums II
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Tukums II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 19 · avg 1.40/3.80
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80