Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oldham · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tranmere 2-0 Oldham
Original prediction
Oldham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 31.0% | 33.8% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.6% | 29.6% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 40.4% | 36.6% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Oldham
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Oldham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TranmereDDDWD
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
OldhamDWLWL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TranmereOldham
58.3Attack58.3
58.3Defence75.0
50.0Form58.3
57.4Power63.5
1.27xG1.30