Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barnet · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tranmere 1-2 Barnet
Original prediction
Barnet
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.34 | 27.7% | 26.4% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.1% | 23.5% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.01 | 46.1% | 50.1% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Barnet
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Barnet has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TranmereDLDWD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
BarnetWDWWD
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
TranmereBarnet
43.3Attack83.3
56.7Defence54.2
40.0Form75.0
48.5Power72.5
1.19xG1.83