Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tottenham 0-2 Newcastle
Original prediction
Newcastle
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 42.7% | 35.8% | -6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 26.0% | 26.8% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.05 | 31.3% | 37.4% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Newcastle
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Newcastle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TottenhamWLDWD
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NewcastleWDDLL
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
TottenhamNewcastle
0.0Attack66.7
0.0Defence33.3
0.0Form33.3
7.0Power45.3
1.44xG1.68