Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Everton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tottenham 0-0 Everton
Original prediction
Everton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 47.8% | 33.6% | -14.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 25.8% | 26.4% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.62 | 26.4% | 40.1% | 13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.70 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Everton
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Everton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TottenhamDLWLD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
EvertonDDWWD
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
TottenhamEverton
0.0Attack55.6
44.4Defence66.7
11.1Form55.6
23.1Power60.9
1.11xG1.63