Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tottenham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tottenham 3-1 Coventry
Original prediction
Tottenham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 61.9% | 47.0% | -14.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.48 | 21.3% | 25.8% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 5.68 | 16.8% | 27.2% | 10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Tottenham
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Tottenham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TottenhamDLLDD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CoventryWWLLL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
TottenhamCoventry
16.7Attack27.8
50.0Defence38.9
16.7Form33.3
31.0Power34.8
1.30xG1.02