Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tottenham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tottenham 5-1 Charlton
Original prediction
Tottenham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 77.0% | 52.2% | -24.7 pts |
| Draw | 6.47 | 14.6% | 24.1% | 9.4 pts |
| Away | 11.22 | 8.4% | 23.7% | 15.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Tottenham
Probability
52.2%
Model confidence
52.2%
Tottenham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TottenhamLDWDW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
CharltonWWWLW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TottenhamCharlton
33.3Attack33.3
66.7Defence0.0
33.3Form0.0
45.3Power15.3
1.73xG1.13