Tottenhamvs
Aston Villa
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 9/19/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tottenham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa
Original prediction
Tottenham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 48.5% | 44.7% | -3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 26.4% | 27.1% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.80 | 25.1% | 28.2% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Tottenham
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
Tottenham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20