Toronto FCvs
New York City FC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 8/29/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New York City FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toronto FC 1-1 New York City FC
Original prediction
New York City FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 38.4% | 34.0% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 26.1% | 22.3% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 35.4% | 43.7% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.60 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
New York City FC
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
New York City FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00