Toronto FCvs
New York City FC
SCHEDULEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 8/29/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New York City FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Toronto FC are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DDLDD), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while New York City FC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and New York City FC hold a 12.3-point power-rating edge (41.8 v 54.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.1% in the Major League Soccer, while New York City FC holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
New York City FC
Probability
52.5%
Model confidence
11.1%
New York City FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20