New York City FCvs
Atlanta United FC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/28/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New York City FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
New York City FC 2-1 Atlanta United FC
Original prediction
New York City FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 53.7% | 45.6% | -8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 24.1% | 27.4% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 4.24 | 22.2% | 27.0% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
New York City FC
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
New York City FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20