Toronto FCvs
Nashville SC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/9/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nashville SC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toronto FC 2-1 Nashville SC
Original prediction
Nashville SC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.99 | 31.3% | 16.0% | -15.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 26.6% | 18.4% | -8.2 pts |
| Away | 2.23 | 42.1% | 65.6% | 23.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
23.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
Nashville SC
Probability
65.6%
Model confidence
65.6%
Nashville SC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60