Toronto FCvs
Chicago Fire
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/5/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toronto FC 4-4 Chicago Fire
Original prediction
Chicago Fire
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.86 | 32.7% | 27.0% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 25.6% | 21.6% | -4.0 pts |
| Away | 2.24 | 41.7% | 51.4% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.66 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Chicago Fire
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40