Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Roma · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Torino 0-2 AS Roma
Original prediction
AS Roma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.98 | 15.8% | 23.8% | 8.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 23.1% | 25.2% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 1.55 | 61.1% | 51.0% | -10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
AS Roma
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TorinoWLLLW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AS RomaDWWWD
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TorinoAS Roma
44.4Attack100.0
44.4Defence88.9
33.3Form100.0
43.7Power94.4
1.05xG1.75