Toluca Wvs
Tigres UANL W
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX Femenil · 9/22/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tigres UANL W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toluca W 2-7 Tigres UANL W
Original prediction
Tigres UANL W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 30.8% | 34.1% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.8% | 22.9% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 44.5% | 43.0% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Tigres UANL W
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Tigres UANL W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00