Goalvio Match Preview
Tigres UANL W carry the stronger forecast against Toluca W
Tigres UANL W enter this Liga MX Femenil fixture with the stronger model outlook, holding a 51.56% away-win probability compared with 26.08% for Toluca W and 22.37% for a draw. The underlying team indicators also favour Tigres UANL W: their Power Rating is 81.1 versus 70.6, while their Elo rating is 1124 against 1082. Recent results reinforce that advantage, with Tigres UANL W recording five wins in their last five listed matches and conceding one goal, whereas Toluca W have three wins, one draw and one loss across the same sample. The model assigns 2.15 expected goals to Tigres UANL W and 1.36 to Toluca W, pointing to a productive attacking contest. The match has a 66.37% BTTS probability and a 67.37% Over 2.5 probability, so the statistical outlook supports goals at both ends more than a low-event game. Toluca W still have a strong season record, with five wins from seven matches and 16 points, while Tigres UANL W have six wins and 18 points, keeping the contest competitive despite the away-side edge.
Key edge
Tigres UANL W’s recent defensive record may be decisive: they have conceded one goal across their last five listed matches, while Toluca W have conceded seven. That defensive contrast sits alongside Tigres UANL W’s 2.15 expected goals, compared with 1.36 for Toluca W.
Biggest risk
Tigres UANL W are favoured by the model, but Toluca W retain a credible route through their home-season record. Toluca W are unbeaten across four listed home matches, with three wins, one draw and one goal conceded, while the draw probability is 22.37%. Those figures indicate that Tigres UANL W may not dominate every phase despite the stronger forecast.
Expected match shape
The projected shape is an active contest with opportunities for both attacks. The model gives Tigres UANL W 2.15 expected goals and Toluca W 1.36 expected goals, while the match carries a 66.37% BTTS probability and a 67.37% Over 2.5 probability. Tigres UANL W’s recent defensive record argues for control, but the overall goal outlook points away from a cautious match.
Match finished
- Toluca WTimeTigres UANL W
- Full time
- A. HenryNormal Goal90+2'
- 90+1'MarizaRed Card
- 83'S. EncisoSubstitution 5
- 81'S. EncisoYellow Card
- Y. Rodriguez PerezSubstitution 580'
- F. RobertSubstitution 480'
- B. CuevasSubstitution 368'
- 67'S. MayorSubstitution 4
- 67'A. DelgadoSubstitution 3
- 67'D. OrdonezSubstitution 2
- 63'MarizaNormal Goal
- 54'T. KgatlanaNormal Goal
- M. PaviSubstitution 246'
- B. DiazSubstitution 146'
- 46'M. ReyesSubstitution 1
- HT
- 45'T. KgatlanaNormal Goal
- K. MartinezRed Card45+2'
- 41'T. KgatlanaNormal Goal
- 34'M. SanchezNormal Goal
- 29'T. KgatlanaNormal Goal
- 26'M. ReyesNormal Goal
- F. RobertYellow Card17'
- E. Le SommerNormal Goal11'
- 9'M. ReyesYellow Card