Tlaxcalavs
Venados FC
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 8/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Venados FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-3 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tlaxcala 3-1 Venados FC
Original prediction
Venados FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 43.4% | 30.5% | -12.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.2% | 22.5% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 30.4% | 47.0% | 16.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–37%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Venados FC
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Venados FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00