Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piratas · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Tlaxcala are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.80 conceded, while Piratas are 2W-1D-1L in their last 4 (LWWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 9 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Piratas hold a 40.6-point power-rating edge (18.3 v 58.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Piratas holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Piratas
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Piratas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.50