Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piratas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tlaxcala 4-2 Piratas
Original prediction
Piratas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.50 | 26.1% | 22.1% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.3% | 22.4% | -4.9 pts |
| Away | 1.96 | 46.6% | 55.5% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Piratas
Probability
55.5%
Model confidence
55.5%
Piratas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TlaxcalaDWLWD
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PiratasWLWDW
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TlaxcalaPiratas
57.6Attack48.5
30.3Defence69.7
36.4Form54.5
42.5Power57.2
1.08xG1.95