Tlaxcalavs
Correcaminos Uat
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/25/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tlaxcala · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tlaxcala 2-0 Correcaminos Uat
Original prediction
Tlaxcala
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.7% | 43.4% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.6% | 23.3% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.30 | 27.7% | 33.4% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–28%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Tlaxcala
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Tlaxcala has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40