Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cancún · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tlaxcala 4-1 Cancún
Original prediction
Cancún
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 38.2% | 23.1% | -15.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.0% | 19.6% | -7.4 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 34.7% | 57.3% | 22.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
22.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Cancún
Probability
57.3%
Model confidence
57.3%
Cancún has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TlaxcalaLWDWL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CancúnWDDWL
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TlaxcalaCancún
51.9Attack63.0
22.2Defence59.3
29.6Form51.9
36.6Power56.1
1.31xG2.69