Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tlaxcala · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tlaxcala are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.80 conceded, while Cancún are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Tlaxcala hold a 5.2-point power-rating edge (18.3 v 13.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tlaxcala holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tlaxcala
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Tlaxcala has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80