Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ternana W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ternana W 1-0 Lazio W
Original prediction
Ternana W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 07:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.16 | 28.6% | 40.4% | 11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.0% | 27.1% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.09 | 43.4% | 32.6% | -10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Ternana W
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Ternana W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ternana WWLLLL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Lazio WLDLWW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Ternana WLazio W
50.0Attack16.7
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form16.7
53.0Power31.3
1.70xG1.14