Tepatitlánvs
Monarcas
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-3 (14%), 0-2 (13%), 0-4 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tepatitlán 1-1 Monarcas
Original prediction
Monarcas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.73 | 15.9% | 6.7% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.55 | 20.0% | 11.7% | -8.3 pts |
| Away | 1.42 | 64.1% | 81.6% | 17.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.55 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–314%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.0–412%
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
81.6%
Model confidence
81.6%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 17 · avg 0.80/3.40
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80