Tepatitlánvs
Dorados
SCHEDULEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tepatitlán are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Dorados are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 58.6-point power-rating edge (9.4 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Liga de Expansión MX, favouring a draw with 11.2% confidence, a 58% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
23.9%
Model confidence
11.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20