GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Tepatitlán are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Dorados are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 58.6-point power-rating edge (9.4 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Liga de Expansión MX, favouring a draw with 11.2% confidence, a 58% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

23.9%

Model confidence

11.2%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

TepatitlánLLLLW

GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
DoradosDWWLW

GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TepatitlánDorados
11.1Attack66.7
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form66.7
9.4Power68.0
1.10xG1.99
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