Tepatitlánvs
Dorados
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tepatitlán 1-4 Dorados
Original prediction
Dorados
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 42.5% | 29.0% | -13.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.5% | 24.3% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 3.05 | 30.1% | 46.7% | 16.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Dorados
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Dorados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 17 · avg 0.80/3.40
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80