Tepatitlánvs
Cancún
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cancún · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-3 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tepatitlán 0-4 Cancún
Original prediction
Cancún
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.57 | 20.0% | 16.4% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.16 | 22.0% | 19.7% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.58 | 58.0% | 63.9% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–311%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Cancún
Probability
63.9%
Model confidence
63.9%
Cancún has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TepatitlánLLDWL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CancúnDDWLW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TepatitlánCancún
25.6Attack56.4
5.1Defence53.8
17.9Form48.7
20.3Power52.3
0.75xG2.79