Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Telavi 0-0 Shturmi, with an exact score probability of 29%.
Prediction record
Final result
Telavi 1-1 Shturmi
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 43.0% | 36.8% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.3% | 34.2% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 3.23 | 27.7% | 29.0% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.04 · Draw 2.04 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Projected Score
Telavi 0–0 Shturmi
Exact score probability: 29%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
34.2%
Model confidence
36.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TelaviDLLWD
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ShturmiWWLLW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TelaviShturmi
36.0Attack36.0
69.3Defence70.7
54.7Form52.0
55.2Power55.1
0.68xG0.60