Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Telavi · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Telavi 1-0 Samtredia, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Telavi 0-3 Samtredia
Original prediction
Telavi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.1% | 51.9% | 6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.2% | 27.0% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.37 | 26.7% | 21.1% | -5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Projected Score
Telavi 1–0 Samtredia
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Telavi
Probability
51.9%
Model confidence
51.9%
Telavi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TelaviLWDDL
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
SamtrediaWWWWW
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
TelaviSamtredia
36.2Attack49.3
73.9Defence44.9
58.0Form40.6
57.9Power46.4
1.33xG0.69