Tartu Welcovs
Tallinna Kalev
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga A · 10/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tartu Welco · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 4-1 (9%), 5-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tartu Welco 3-2 Tallinna Kalev
Original prediction
Tartu Welco
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 62.2% | 62.0% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.82 | 18.7% | 19.3% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.71 | 19.1% | 18.7% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.4–19%
- 3.5–17%
Predicted outcome
Tartu Welco
Probability
62.0%
Model confidence
62.0%
Tartu Welco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 20 · GA 3 · avg 4.00/0.60
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20