Tartu Welcovs
Nõmme United II
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga A · 10/18/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tartu Welco · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (10%), 3-1 (9%), 4-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tartu Welco 4-3 Nõmme United II
Original prediction
Tartu Welco
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 63.4% | 79.9% | 16.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.88 | 18.4% | 11.0% | -7.4 pts |
| Away | 4.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | -9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–110%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.4–08%
Predicted outcome
Tartu Welco
Probability
79.9%
Model confidence
79.9%
Tartu Welco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 0 · avg 3.20/0.00
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20