Tartu Welcovs
Nõmme Kalju II
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga A · 9/14/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tartu Welco · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (10%), 4-0 (10%), 5-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tartu Welco 3-0 Nõmme Kalju II
Original prediction
Tartu Welco
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 79.3% | 85.8% | 6.6 pts |
| Draw | 7.63 | 11.8% | 8.5% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 10.14 | 8.9% | 5.7% | -3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–110%
- 2.4–010%
- 3.5–19%
Predicted outcome
Tartu Welco
Probability
85.8%
Model confidence
85.8%
Tartu Welco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60