Tartu Welcovs
Elva
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga A · 10/9/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tartu Welco · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tartu Welco 4-0 Elva
Original prediction
Tartu Welco
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 49.5% | 61.2% | 11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.6% | 19.4% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 3.33 | 26.9% | 19.4% | -7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.3–07%
Predicted outcome
Tartu Welco
Probability
61.2%
Model confidence
61.2%
Tartu Welco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80