Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tapatío 4-0 Tlaxcala
Original prediction
Tapatío
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.6% | 49.8% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.0% | 21.5% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 3.45 | 26.4% | 28.8% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TapatíoLLDWW
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
TlaxcalaWDWLD
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
TapatíoTlaxcala
54.2Attack58.3
41.7Defence29.2
45.8Form33.3
49.6Power42.1
2.35xG1.72