Tapatíovs
Tepatitlán
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/13/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%), 4-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tapatío 4-1 Tepatitlán
Original prediction
Tapatío
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 62.1% | 77.9% | 15.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.48 | 20.4% | 13.1% | -7.3 pts |
| Away | 5.22 | 17.5% | 8.9% | -8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–011%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.4–09%
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
77.9%
Model confidence
77.9%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40