TapatíovsTepatitlán

Tapatío are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Tepatitlán are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 45.8-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 13.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 64.4% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 64% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.