Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tapatío are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Monarcas are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWD), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 10.6-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 69.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
36.2%
Model confidence
36.2%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60