Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tapatío 1-2 Monarcas
Original prediction
Monarcas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.07 | 29.8% | 28.2% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.5% | 24.0% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.05 | 44.7% | 47.8% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
47.8%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TapatíoLWLLW
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
MonarcasLDDLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
TapatíoMonarcas
59.0Attack59.0
35.9Defence61.5
43.6Form59.0
46.5Power60.6
1.41xG2.17