Tapatíovs
Leones Negros UDG
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/6/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leones Negros UDG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tapatío 1-3 Leones Negros UDG
Original prediction
Leones Negros UDG
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 43.4% | 36.7% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.1% | 24.7% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 3.10 | 29.5% | 38.6% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Leones Negros UDG
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00