Tapatíovs
Leones Negros UDG
SCHEDULEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/6/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tapatío are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Leones Negros UDG are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Leones Negros UDG hold a 12.3-point power-rating edge (51.1 v 63.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Liga de Expansión MX, favouring a draw with 12.8% confidence, a 59% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
27.3%
Model confidence
12.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80