Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CA La Paz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tapatío 2-4 CA La Paz
Original prediction
CA La Paz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 33.7% | 28.0% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.2% | 21.4% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.22 | 41.2% | 50.6% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
CA La Paz
Probability
50.6%
Model confidence
50.6%
CA La Paz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TapatíoLWLLD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CA La PazLWWDW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
TapatíoCA La Paz
56.7Attack72.7
50.0Defence60.6
46.7Form60.6
51.8Power63.7
1.40xG2.08