Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barrow · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tamworth 1-2 Barrow
Original prediction
Barrow
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 34.7% | 27.7% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.1% | 23.5% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.33 | 39.1% | 48.8% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
Barrow
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Barrow has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TamworthWWLWL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BarrowWWWWL
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
TamworthBarrow
55.6Attack55.6
22.2Defence58.3
38.9Form50.0
41.5Power55.4
1.44xG2.47