Tallinna Kalevvs
Tartu Welco
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga A · 9/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tartu Welco · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (7%), 2-3 (7%), 1-4 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tallinna Kalev 1-1 Tartu Welco
Original prediction
Tartu Welco
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.68 | 24.4% | 20.8% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 21.6% | 16.5% | -5.1 pts |
| Away | 1.67 | 54.0% | 62.7% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–37%
- 2.2–37%
- 3.1–46%
Predicted outcome
Tartu Welco
Probability
62.7%
Model confidence
62.7%
Tartu Welco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 19 · GA 8 · avg 3.80/1.60