Swindon Townvs
Walsall
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Walsall · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Swindon Town 0-1 Walsall, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Swindon Town 1-1 Walsall
Original prediction
Walsall
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.65 | 34.9% | 21.2% | -13.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.5% | 27.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.40 | 38.6% | 50.9% | 12.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.50 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.3 pts
Projected Score
Swindon Town 0–1 Walsall
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Walsall
Probability
50.9%
Model confidence
50.9%
Walsall has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Swindon TownLLDLL
GF 1 · GA 6 · avg 0.20/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
WalsallWDDLW
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Swindon TownWalsall
30.0Attack44.4
53.3Defence77.8
36.7Form55.6
41.8Power60.7
0.51xG1.20