Swindon Townvs
Port Vale
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/1/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swindon Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Swindon Town 3-1 Port Vale
Original prediction
Swindon Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.19 | 29.2% | 35.9% | 6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 27.0% | 28.7% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 43.8% | 35.4% | -8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Swindon Town
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Swindon Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20