Swindon Townvs
Crewe
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/10/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Crewe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Swindon Town 0-1 Crewe, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Swindon Town 0-1 Crewe
Original prediction
Crewe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.59 | 35.9% | 29.8% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.3% | 30.6% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 36.9% | 39.5% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Projected Score
Swindon Town 0–1 Crewe
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Crewe
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Crewe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Swindon TownLDLLL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CreweDWDWD
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Swindon TownCrewe
33.3Attack40.7
51.9Defence74.1
40.7Form55.6
43.7Power59.6
0.60xG1.14