Swindon Townvs
Colchester
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swindon Town · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Swindon Town 3-1 Colchester
Original prediction
Swindon Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.52 | 36.7% | 36.7% | 0.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.7% | 29.6% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 35.6% | 33.6% | -2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Swindon Town
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Swindon Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40