Swindon Townvs
Accrington ST
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swindon Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Swindon Town 1-1 Accrington ST
Original prediction
Swindon Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 43.0% | 39.0% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.8% | 28.7% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 30.2% | 32.3% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Swindon Town
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Swindon Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80