Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swansea · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Swansea 0-0 Wrexham
Original prediction
Swansea
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 41.9% | 48.8% | 6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.2% | 26.6% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.13 | 29.9% | 24.6% | -5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.32 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–012%
- 2.1–112%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Swansea
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Swansea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SwanseaWWDWL
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
WrexhamWLDDL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SwanseaWrexham
58.3Attack33.3
91.7Defence55.6
83.3Form22.2
78.6Power40.2
1.74xG0.82