Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swansea · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Swansea 0-1 West Ham
Original prediction
Swansea
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.97 | 31.5% | 41.5% | 10.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.5% | 25.2% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.22 | 42.1% | 33.3% | -8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Swansea
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Swansea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SwanseaWWWWL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
West HamWDDLW
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
SwanseaWest Ham
53.3Attack96.7
76.7Defence60.0
76.7Form63.3
70.6Power69.7
1.39xG1.10