Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swansea · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Swansea 2-0 Watford
Original prediction
Swansea
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 50.1% | 45.3% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 26.3% | 27.3% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 4.00 | 23.6% | 27.5% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Swansea
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Swansea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SwanseaWDWLW
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
WatfordDLDWW
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
SwanseaWatford
55.6Attack44.4
88.9Defence66.7
77.8Form55.6
74.7Power59.1
1.46xG1.00