Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swansea · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Swansea 2-1 Norwich
Original prediction
Swansea
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 40.2% | 48.6% | 8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.3% | 25.7% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.89 | 32.5% | 25.7% | -6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Swansea
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
Swansea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SwanseaWWLDW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NorwichLLLWW
GF 11 · GA 15 · avg 2.20/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
SwanseaNorwich
54.2Attack66.7
75.0Defence29.2
70.8Form37.5
67.7Power45.3
2.41xG0.97