Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swansea · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Swansea 3-1 Burnley
Original prediction
Swansea
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 44.9% | 52.2% | 7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.4% | 25.3% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.37 | 27.8% | 22.5% | -5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Swansea
Probability
52.2%
Model confidence
52.2%
Swansea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SwanseaLDWWD
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
BurnleyDLDLD
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
SwanseaBurnley
44.4Attack38.9
77.8Defence27.8
61.1Form16.7
61.8Power31.0
2.00xG0.72