Sunderlandvs
Leeds
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/25/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leeds · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sunderland 0-0 Leeds
Original prediction
Leeds
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.93 | 32.5% | 23.0% | -9.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 30.4% | 26.2% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 2.55 | 37.2% | 50.8% | 13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.13 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Leeds
Probability
50.8%
Model confidence
50.8%
Leeds has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SunderlandDLWLL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LeedsDLDWL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
SunderlandLeeds
28.6Attack42.9
33.3Defence71.4
19.0Form47.6
30.8Power55.3
0.73xG1.64