Sunderlandvs
Fulham
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 8/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sunderland · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sunderland 1-0 Fulham
Original prediction
Sunderland
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.48 | 38.5% | 38.7% | 0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 29.2% | 27.6% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 32.4% | 33.7% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sunderland
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Sunderland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40