Sunderlandvs
Brighton
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brighton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sunderland 0-2 Brighton
Original prediction
Brighton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.02 | 31.4% | 23.3% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.7% | 23.2% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 2.33 | 40.9% | 53.5% | 12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Brighton
Probability
53.5%
Model confidence
53.5%
Brighton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 15 · GA 7 · avg 3.00/1.40